中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院陳小亮作了一場(chǎng)題為“The Tail that Wags the Economy Belief Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation(經(jīng)濟(jì)信仰驅(qū)動(dòng)的業(yè)務(wù)周期和持續(xù)停滯的尾巴)”的講座。中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院擁有文學(xué)哲學(xué)部、社會(huì)政法學(xué)部、歷史學(xué)部、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)部、國(guó)際研究學(xué)部、馬克思主義研究學(xué)部等6大學(xué)部，近40個(gè)研究院所，10個(gè)職能部門，包括中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院研究生院在內(nèi)的8個(gè)直屬機(jī)構(gòu)。講座的主要內(nèi)容是：

　　“大蕭條”是一個(gè)嚴(yán)重衰退與信貸市場(chǎng)，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)和輸出效果持久。我們探討一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的解釋是：此次衰退已經(jīng)比其他人更持久的，因?yàn)樗��?007年觀測(cè)這樣一個(gè)小插曲導(dǎo)致所有代理重新評(píng)估宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，特別是尾部事件的概率之前被視為一種非常罕見(jiàn)的事件。為了模擬這種想法，我們研究了生產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)中債務(wù)融資的公司。代理使用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的計(jì)量工具來(lái)估計(jì)骨料沖擊的分布。我們進(jìn)料時(shí)間序列美國(guó)宏觀數(shù)據(jù)到我們的模型，并表明，我們的信念修正機(jī)制可以解釋在美國(guó)趨勢(shì)輸出的12%的向下移位。

　　原文：The “Great Recession” was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit markets, labor markets and output. We explore a simple explanation: This recession has been more persistent than others because it was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led all agents to re-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. To model this idea, we study a production economy with debt-financed firms. Agents use standard econometric tools to estimate the distribution of aggregate shocks. We feed a time-series of US macro data into our model and show that our belief revision mechanism can explain the 12% downward shift in US trend output.